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Long-term trend: long. The maximum volume accumulation of the current contract is located in the range with quotes 1.14450β1.14700. Currently, investment operations on the pair are being executed above this range, indicating buyer strength.
The euro maintains support ahead of the ECB meeting scheduled for Thursday. The market has almost fully priced in a 25 basis point rate hike, as rising energy prices are intensifying inflation risks in the eurozone. This keeps the divergence in expectations between the ECB and the Fed in favor of the single currency and limits interest in selling it.
Brent approached $100 per barrel, rising 0.7 percent. WTI for October delivery rose 1.7 percent to $93.03. Traders await details of an Iran-Oman agreement on managing shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, while strong Chinese buying further tightens the market.
Trade review and tips for trading the Japanese yen.
The price test of 154.37 occurred as the MACD indicator began moving down from the zero line, confirming the right entry point to sell the dollar. As a result, the pair fell about 70 pips. The revised Cabinet Office report showed Japan’s economy grew 1.4% year-on-year in the latest quarter versus a prior forecast of 1.1%. GDP reflects growth momentum, and an upward revision matters because it reinforces confidence in the economy’s resilience.
Price is trading in the comfort zone, above the day balance level of 1.1621. An active engulfing pattern has formed, with a new upward model and a target around 1.1681. The timing of the model’s activation coincides with the current day balance, providing the best entry point for buyers. A new contract has completed its formation. Price is in the buyer climax corridor area. Continued medium-term growth from current levels is expected. The main support level is located at 1.1596, where it is profitable to buy the pair. The intermediate target for the upward impulse is around 1.1667. An alternative selling scenario is not considered at this stage. Maximum profit is located around 1.1610. Drawdown parameters on the buyer side are 12% for the week and 11% for the month. The main scenario for the current day is buying the pair.
Long-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of volumes for the current contract is located in the range of quotes 1.14450β1.14700. Currently, investment operations on the pair are being executed above this range, indicating buyer strength.
The beginning of the trading week turned out to be uninteresting in terms of any significant directional movement. Buyers are confidently holding their ground against their eternal opponents, while successfully launching counterattacks.
EUR/USD starts the session near 1.1626 amid a weakening dollar and market preparation for the ECB meeting. Acceleration of inflation in the eurozone to 3.3% has strengthened expectations of a 25 basis point increase in the deposit rate. Additional support for the euro comes from a noticeable improvement in investor sentiment, indicating increased confidence in the prospects for the regional economy.
EURUSD: BUY 1.1606, SL 1.1590, TP 1.1655
Price is trading in the comfort zone, above the day balance level of 1.1606. An active absorption pattern has formed, with a new upward model and a target around 1.1674. A new monthly-type contract has begun. Price formation is underway in the ORD area. Excellent accumulation for active buying. The price is in the buyer climax corridor area. Expectation of continued medium-term growth from current levels.
EURUSD: SELL 1.16100β1.16520, TP1-1.15680, TP2-1.14660.
Long-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of volumes for the current contract is located in the range of quotes 1.14450β1.14700. Currently, investment operations on the pair are being executed above this range, indicating buyer strength.
