The USDCHF pair remains entrenched in a strong bearish trend, primarily driven by a continued weakness in the US dollar, which has been in a downward cycle since September 2022 and, more notably, from January 2025. This persistent bear market aligns perfectly with an Elliott Wave corrective structure, as we observe the dollar navigating a clear A-B-C corrective pattern. Of particular interest is Wave C, which kicked off in January 2025 and is unfolding as an impulsive structure — setting the stage for fresh sell-offs.

Despite the fact that Wave C is still in play, the overall downward movement hasn’t yet reached its target zone, and any bounce we’ve seen has been corrective. This pattern reinforces the overarching strategy of “selling the bounce,” a method that’s been highly profitable across various dollar pairs, including USDCHF.

For the USDCHF, the bearish cycle began to gain traction in earnest around October 2022, with a significant inflection point in January 2025. From there, we’ve identified several key levels at which corrective bounces occurred, specifically around the extremes of 3, 7, and 11 swings. These extreme zones, marked by our signature blue boxes, provide precise entry points for short positions. One of the most notable examples came with a clean 7-swing bounce that began on July 1, 2025. As that corrective bounce matured, we identified the blue box zone for a potential sell-off. After sharing the setup with members on August 9, 2025, the pair fell over 330 pips from the blue box, easily breaking below the July low and confirming the bearish sentiment.

The next move came after the 17th September FOMC meeting, where USDCHF decisively broke below the July low and started a corrective bounce to retrace the August decline. This gave us the opportunity to prepare another sell setup from the blue box, which was shared with members on September 21, 2025. Our H1 chart highlighted the 0.7959-0.8012 range, presenting an ideal short opportunity as Wave ((v)) was expected to emerge and drive the pair lower — targeting the September low.

For those who entered at the blue box zone, the trade was triggered, and price separation has been consistent, suggesting further downside potential. As per our analysis, we anticipate that the move will extend to at least the 50% Fibonacci level of wave (c) of ((iv)), where initial profit-taking is advisable. This sets up a classic “risk-free trade” scenario, where sellers can lock in profits and allow the trade to run without any further downside risk.

This is just another textbook example of how our Blue Box Entry System works effectively across multiple markets and time frames, ensuring that our members can consistently capture high-probability setups in even the most volatile market conditions. Whether you’re trading USDCHF or any of the other 78 markets we cover, our methodology remains a reliable and expert-guided approach to navigating the complexities of Elliott Wave analysis.