The daily chart for NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) exhibits classic textbook signals of a macro trend reversal. After a powerful bullish rally through April and early May that pushed the stock toward the 230–235 USD resistance zone, momentum has sharply exhausted. The confluence of a prominent bearish divergence on the MACD, a bearish MACD crossover, and a rapid breakdown in the RSI suggests that the bears have taken control for the medium term.

The manual projection drawn on the chart (the steep pink downward trendline targeting the 160 USD region by July) aligns well with historical structural support, though the velocity of the decline may experience minor short-term relief bounces along the way.

1. Price Action & Structural Levels
The Peak and Reversal: NVDA formed a local top near 235 USD in mid-May. The subsequent candle formations show aggressive selling pressure, characterized by lower highs and lower lows, breaking below short-term moving structures.

The Projected Path: The drawn pink trendline anticipates a sharp, uninterrupted correction down to the 160 USD area by July. Structurally, this target is highly logical: the 160–170 USD range served as a heavy accumulation/consolidation zone throughout February and March. Markets love to retest old breakout origins.

Immediate Support/Resistance:
Key Resistance: 218.16 USD (Pre-market level) and 221.00 USD.
Immediate Support: 200.00 USD (Psychological level and early May swing low).
Major Structural Support Target: 160.00–169.00 USD.

2. Momentum Indicators Breakdown
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)
The MACD is providing the strongest warning sign on this chart, explicitly highlighted by the manual trendline drawn between April 16, 2026, and May 20, 2026.

Regular Bearish Divergence: While the underlying asset price made a clear higher high (rising from ~210 USD in mid-April to over ~230 USD in mid-May), the MACD histogram and MACD lines printed a distinct lower high. This indicates that while prices were making new peaks, the underlying institutional buying volume and velocity were actually diminishing.

Bearish Crossover: The blue MACD line has crossed decisively below the orange signal line above the zero line. Furthermore, the histogram has turned negative (red bars accelerating downward), confirming that bearish momentum is expanding.

RSI (Relative Strength Index)
Momentum Downdraft: The 14-period RSI peaked deep in overbought territory (>70) during the mid-May price top, signaling an overheated market.

Mid-line Breakdown: The RSI has plummeted to 53.71, breaking cleanly below its yellow SMA (63.36). Because it has broken the upper bullish regime but is not yet oversold (<30), there is substantial "empty space" for the RSI to continue dropping, supporting the thesis of a deeper price correction.

3. Market Forecast & Strategic Outlook
The technical setup heavily favors the short/bearish thesis over the next 4 to 6 weeks.

Bearish Scenario (Primary Focus)
Expect price action to gravitate downward toward the psychological 200 USD handle. If institutional buyers fail to step in there, a cascading sell-off toward the structural support zone between 160 USD and 169 USD is highly probable by mid-summer. The steepness of the drawn line might be slightly dramatic in terms of time—markets rarely move in a perfectly straight line without dead-cat bounces—but the ultimate destination is technically sound.

Invalidation / Bullish Alternative
For this bearish macro view to be invalidated, NVDA would need to immediately reclaim the 221 USD level on high volume, print a higher low, and squeeze short-sellers back past the 235 USD absolute peak. Given the current configuration of both the MACD and RSI, the probability of an immediate bullish breakout is low.

Critical Resistance – 235.00 USD – Major swing high; invalidates all bearish setups if broken.
Pivot Resistance – 221.01 USD – Recent daily high; bulls must reclaim this to stabilize.
Immediate Support – 200.00 USD – Psychological floor; a break here accelerates the drop.
Macro Target Zone – 160.00–169.00 USD – Primary demand zone and the ultimate target of the current correction.

Expert Analysis – Nvidia (NVDA) Long-Term Outlook to 2030

Nvidia (NVDA) is widely regarded as a leader in GPUs and AI, but there are several macroeconomic and structural risks that could drive the stock to extreme lows in a worst-case scenario. Below is a comprehensive expert view considering economy, job losses, debt, tariffs, and other key factors.

1. Macroeconomic Risks

Economy & Recession Chatter: A US or global recession could dramatically reduce demand for GPUs, AI infrastructure, and cloud services, cutting Nvidia’s revenues.

Job Losses & Consumer Confidence: Rising unemployment and falling consumer confidence reduce spending on gaming, PCs, and enterprise AI solutions.

Dollar Weakness & US Debt: Dollar depreciation and a looming US debt wall could increase costs, raise interest rates, and slow investment in technology.

2. Structural & Market Risks

Tariff Pain Points & Trade Wars: Persistent tariffs on semiconductors and export restrictions could shrink margins, especially in China, the largest GPU market.

Real Estate & Debt Exposure: Broader financial stress and tightening credit conditions could slow corporate and consumer purchases of AI and gaming hardware.

3. Company-Specific Vulnerabilities

Valuation Fragility: Nvidia trades at historically high multiples. In a severe macro meltdown, these multiples could collapse, causing extreme price drops.

Competitive Pressure: Intel, AMD, and Chinese chipmakers may erode Nvidia’s market share, while software and regulatory hurdles could slow AI adoption.

4. Hypothetical Path to $5

• Global recession hits tech hard → IT budgets slashed.
• Tariffs and supply constraints → major revenue loss.
• Debt wall and credit tightening → AI/cloud projects delayed.
• Investor panic → massive sell-offs.
• Dollar weakness and inflation → rising costs, collapsing margins.

Under this extreme scenario, NVDA could hypothetically trade around $5 by 2030.

5. Risk Management & Takeaways

While highly unlikely, this tail-risk scenario highlights the importance of diversification, hedging, and monitoring macroeconomic and company-specific signals:

• US economic indicators and recession signs
• Trade and tariff policies affecting semiconductors
• Dollar strength and interest rate changes
• Nvidia guidance on AI and enterprise sales

Summary: Nvidia is a tech powerhouse, but combining economic slowdown, job losses, US debt, tariffs, and overvaluation could hypothetically push the stock to extreme lows. This represents a tail-risk event and should be considered in long-term risk planning.

Market Overview: Why NVDA?
NVIDIA (NVDA) is currently experiencing a bullish phase with the price movement confirming a double bottom pullback pattern — a textbook bullish reversal setup. This pattern, observed on the daily timeframe, reflects a significant level of support and indicates that market participants are actively defending the price around the key support zone, signaling a potential trend reversal to the upside.

The double bottom is often followed by an impulsive wave, as outlined by Elliott Wave Theory, where the market enters a corrective phase, forms a bottom, and then moves higher in an impulsive wave (Wave 1). The price action is further validated by Fibonacci retracement levels, confirming that NVDA is respecting critical support zones and is on the verge of a breakout.

At this point, buyers are stepping in, eager to capitalize on the long-term growth potential of NVIDIA, particularly driven by the booming semiconductor and AI sectors. RSI (Relative Strength Index) is nearing an ideal level, confirming that the stock is entering a bullish zone without being overbought, while MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) is showing strong bullish momentum with positive divergence.

The Thief’s Plan: Bullish Heist Strategy
🎯 Entry Strategy:
We aim to capitalize on the stock’s upward movement by deploying the Layering Tactic, where we place multiple buy-limit orders at incremental price levels, ensuring that we enter the market at the best possible prices as the stock begins to move higher. This method smooths out price fluctuations and mitigates risk.
Here’s how we position the entries based on Fibonacci retracement levels and recent market structure:

Buy Limit: $172.00
Buy Limit: $174.00
Buy Limit: $176.00
Buy Limit: $178.00

Pro Tip: Feel free to adjust the layers based on your personal risk tolerance and current market volatility. The idea is to ensure an entry near key support zones while allowing some flexibility to capture potential momentum.

🛑 Stop-Loss (SL): Risk Management is Key
We set a stop-loss (SL) at $168.00, strategically placed just below the key support zone identified by the double bottom. This ensures that if the market turns against us, our losses remain limited, and we can quickly reassess our position. A good rule of thumb is always to place the SL at levels that are beyond the typical market noise, but still protect the primary structure of our bullish setup.

Note: This SL is my personal suggestion based on the technical levels, but it’s essential to adjust it according to your own risk management strategy. Ensure that you’re comfortable with the risk/reward profile before entering any trade.

🎯 Take Profit (TP): Setting Realistic Targets
The take profit (TP) target is set at $195.00, where we anticipate a strong resistance zone based on previous highs and the overbought conditions that may form as the stock approaches this level. At this point, we could potentially see a bull trap, especially if the stock becomes overheated in the short term.

It’s essential to monitor the price action carefully as we approach the TP area. If we witness signs of a reversal or excessive buying pressure, it may be wise to lock in profits before the market moves against us.

Note: The TP level is a guideline, and you should adjust it based on the strength of the bullish momentum and any market sentiment shifts.

🔗 Correlated Assets to Watch

Monitoring correlated assets will help validate the trade setup and provide additional context:

AMD (Advanced Micro Devices): As a direct competitor and peer in the semiconductor space, AMD’s performance often aligns with NVIDIA’s. A bullish move in NVDA could signal strength in AMD, making it a good asset to track.
SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF): This ETF tracks the semiconductor sector, and its performance can give a broader view of the tech sector’s overall health. Watch for sector-wide bullish momentum to confirm the trend.
QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust): NVDA is a major player in the QQQ ETF, so its performance often mirrors the broader tech-heavy index. If QQQ continues its bullish trend, NVDA’s upward movement is likely to follow.

Key Insight: If AMD and SMH are showing bullish patterns, they reinforce NVDA’s potential for continued upside. Conversely, weakness in QQQ or the broader market could warrant caution, so it’s important to remain vigilant.

🛠️ Why This Setup Works: A Technical Breakdown

Double Bottom Pullback Pattern: A double bottom is a strong bullish reversal pattern that typically signals the end of a downtrend. When this pattern forms, it suggests strong buying interest at the support level, and we can expect the next significant move to be upward.

Liquidity Grab: The market often tests support levels with brief dips (a shakeout), which are designed to trap weak hands before the real move higher. By layering our entries, we avoid getting caught in these brief pullbacks and enter as the market starts to shift toward its bullish trend.

Layered Entries: Layered entries allow us to average into the trade gradually, spreading the risk over multiple price levels. This approach minimizes the impact of sudden market fluctuations and increases the probability of entering at favorable prices.

Elliott Waves: Based on Elliott Wave Theory, the double bottom is likely the end of a corrective wave (Wave 2), and the next move could be the beginning of an impulsive wave (Wave 3), which is typically the strongest part of the trend. This aligns perfectly with our bullish expectations.

Fibonacci Confluence: Fibonacci retracement levels provide additional confirmation of the support levels for entry. In this case, we’re targeting the 0.618 retracement level as a key area where buying pressure may intensify. This confluence strengthens the setup and adds confidence to our entry strategy.

MACD & RSI Indicators: Both the MACD and RSI indicators are aligning with the bullish momentum. The MACD is showing a positive divergence, indicating that buyers are gaining strength, while RSI is in the mid-range, suggesting that the asset is not yet overbought, which leaves room for further upside.

Final Thoughts: Managing the Heist Like a Pro
Executing this strategy requires discipline and an understanding of market dynamics. By leveraging Elliott Waves, Fibonacci retracements, and technical indicators like MACD and RSI, we position ourselves for success in this trade.

Always remember that risk management is essential. Ensure that you have clear stop-loss and take-profit levels, and be prepared to adjust your strategy based on how the market moves.

The market is full of opportunities for those who approach it with precision and discipline. This NVDA trade plan is crafted to capitalize on strong technical patterns, while managing risk effectively. Time to execute with confidence and let the profits roll in! 😎🚀

NVIDIA (NVDA) broke below its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) last week for the first time in four months, since May 6, 2025. This was seen as a significant event, as the MA50 had previously served as the strongest support level for the ongoing bullish trend.

Key Support Levels to Watch:

1D MA100 (Green Trend-Line): The next key support to watch is the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which previously acted as support during NVIDIA’s last strong bullish trend from October 31, 2023, to June 20, 2024. The MA100 held the price and helped fuel a rally to new highs.

Fibonacci Retracement Levels: In a similar scenario during the last bullish cycle, the price broke below the 1D MA50, but the 1D MA100 held firm, and the stock rebounded. Additionally, the price touched the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level during this time.

Potential Downside and Recovery:

There is a possibility of a weekly leg down to $155.00 (the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level) before a recovery. However, such a move would likely mean breaking below the 1D MA100, which, while not impossible, seems less probable at this stage. The higher probability scenario remains a rebound sooner rather than later.

RSI Support and Bullish Indicators:

A strong indicator supporting a potential rebound is the 1D RSI, which has just touched its 2-year support zone. Historically, this level has been a reliable “buy” signal, both for short-term and long-term trades.

Price Targets:

Take Profit 1 (TP1): $200 – A strong recovery could push the price back to this key resistance level.

Take Profit 2 (TP2): $240 – A more extended rally, fueled by favorable market conditions and bullish sentiment, could target this level, which aligns with the 2024 Channel Up trend and -0.382 Fibonacci extension.

For the upside, the 2024 Channel Up trend peaked at the -0.382 Fibonacci extension, which is positioned at $245.00. This remains a key target for the stock as it continues to recover and potentially moves higher.